Machinery and equipment industry depth report: machinery, the traditional cycle of goods than expected
The traditional range of mechanical products and the market over the expected range.
(1) range of more than expected: the current market for the mechanical cycle of the product to pick up the focus of attention in the construction machinery industry, we recommend that you look at all the traditional cycle of industry, including construction machinery, heavy machinery, oil and gas equipment and services,
(2) time-than-expected: the current market for the general market cycle of goods in March before the market optimistic attitude, in March after a pessimistic attitude, and we judge at least 1-7 months of construction machinery worry-free, heavy machinery, Oil and gas equipment and services, coal machine growth worries throughout the year.
(3) investment advice: the choice of the subject, follow the two principles, one is to try not to rise or rose less varieties; Second, as far as possible the choice of net profit may hit a record high (implied the company's business structure optimization The judgment). Based on these two principles and performance flexibility to determine, (1) engineering machinery machinery industry sort: Xugong machinery, construction machinery, Liugong, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and so on. (2) heavy machinery industry sort: Taiyuan Heavy Industries, China a heavy (about ST), Zhenhua Heavy Industries. (3) oil and gas equipment and services industry sort: Huibo Pu, Jerry shares and so on. (4) coal machine industry sort: heaven and earth technology, coal and other coal. In general, we are currently leading the study of heavy machinery in the market; judgments on the duration of the market optimistic about the market.
Construction machinery: drag the absorptive effect of the basic disappearance of + low base, is our 1-7 month sales growth optimistic one of the main reasons; at the same time we are optimistic about investment in infrastructure, real estate investment is not pessimistic; to determine the replacement cycle for 13 years , Is expected in 2017 digging machine sales growth rate of 17.53%, before the high after low. Will benefit from the industry itself and the downstream supply side of the reform effect, 2017 high-end demand in the rise, performance is expected to substantially reversed.
Heavy machinery: through the 2016 demand for freezing the heavy machinery industry, benefiting itself and the downstream heavy industry supply side of the reform, the downstream heavy chemical industry has been the first to show earnings rebound, is expected in 2017 heavy machinery industry will be profitable rise. According to grassroots research, leading enterprises have seen a substantial increase in orders, mainly from the downstream heavy chemical industry leading industrial upgrading equipment needs. Oil and gas equipment: 2017 crude oil demand increased and OPEC production will promote the balance of supply and demand of crude oil, although the oil price trend to the upper and lower conduction to the middle of the slower, but the growth of oil and gas equipment and services up in 2017, the global oil company capital expenditure is expected to slightly Growth judgments, we believe that overseas business development efforts, EPC to achieve more orders of the oil enterprises have a better layout opportunities.
Coal machine: in the replacement, the mechanization rate and the new capacity requirements of the three driving together, coal demand has ushered in a long inflection point, we measured 2017-2019 coal machine replacement market demand will be as high as 160-260 billion yuan / Year; new capacity to bring the coal market demand for 25 billion yuan.
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